There are very poor crops in the boreal forest this year. This has the potential for being the biggest flight year since 2020-2021. Purple Finches and Red-breasted Nuthatches have been moving south in numbers since mid-August.
Most Purple Finches will migrate south out of Eastern Canada this winter with some making it to the deep southern States. Reports of early movement have been occurring for weeks. Many young finches benefited from the ample food source provided by the widespread spruce budworm outbreaks, and this led to them moving in search of food weeks ago.
Areas affected by Spruce Budworm infestations provided widespread and bountiful food during the breeding season, but these same areas also have a very poor cone crop for the winter. Pine Siskins that bred in these areas will be on the move.
Expect a probable strong Redpoll flight south out of the boreal forest east of Lake Superior southward into the lower great lakes, eastward through northern New York, New England and the Maritime provinces.
There should be a moderate flight of Evening Grosbeaks southward this fall. Depending on the direction and timing when Evening Grosbeaks come out of the boreal forest, some flocks may winter further south of their usual areas. The eastern cone crop area should hold wintering flocks in southern Quebec, the Maritime provinces, New England states, and New York this winter. A few birds likely make it to Pennsylvania and perhaps the higher elevations of the Mid-Atlantic States as well.
Red-breasted nuthatches have been irrupting south since mid-August and continue to irrupt. Individuals have made it as far as the Alabama Gulf Coast. With poor cone crops in the eastern boreal forest, expect this species to continue to move southward. At feeders, this species prefers black oil seeds, suet, and peanuts.
Source: https://finchnetwork.org/winter-finch-forecast-2025-2026
